Artem Lyashanov: Analysis of the BCG Future of Finance 2026 Report. The Market is Profitable, but Not Ready for Scaling
A column by Artem Lyashanov, a fintech entrepreneur, company founder, and investor, who has been analyzing industry reports on the future of the financial sector for many years and shares his perspective on what's truly important and what's just fancy wording.
Once a year, a report is released that's worth reading slowly. BCG Future of Finance 2026 is one of them.
The title of the report is Time to Shift Gears. The metaphor is more accurate than it seems at first glance. The market is constantly evolving, but those who simply press the gas without adjusting the speed risk burning out the engine.
The Paradox of Success
Financial institutions showed a 30% total shareholder return (TSR) in 2025. Apparently, this is the highest figure among all industries, including the technology sector.
Meanwhile, price-earnings multiples remain among the lowest in any industry.
Investors see profits, but they don't seem to see scalability. A good year can be explained by favorable interest rates or compressed costs. The ability to grow systematically is apparently a different matter, and this is where traditional financial institutions are losing out to fintech.
High profits and the ability to scale are two different things. The market values the latter, so the gap between banks' results and their multiples is no coincidence, notes Artem Lyashanov in his analysis of this section.
About Agent AI
Agent AI delivers over 50% productivity gains in retail lending and over 30% increase in fee income in wealth management.
Agent AI is a system that independently processes a task from start to finish without any human intervention.
Industries where this is already noticeable:
- Real-time scoring. Credit decisions that previously took hours or days now take seconds;
- Autonomous risk monitoring. Systems automatically identify anomalies and learn from new fraud patterns without manually updating rules;
- Personalized wealth management. AI makes products accessible to the mass segment of affluent clients and small loans in emerging markets.
Segments that were previously unprofitable due to high underwriting costs are becoming accessible.
Potential vs. Reality
BCG describes the emergence of programmable money rails, where machines execute transactions autonomously, and tokenized private markets that could challenge banks' deposit franchises.
The difference between this potential and what has already been deployed in real payment systems appears to be significant.
What's already working:
- Stablecoins as a settlement instrument in B2B transactions between jurisdictions, where SWIFT is expensive and slow. Smart contracts in trade finance;
- Tokenized money market funds as an alternative to overnight deposits.
What's still in the pilot stage:
- Full-fledged programmable money in retail settlements;
- Tokenized private markets with liquidity comparable to public markets;
- Autonomous lending without human participation in decision-making.
These are areas with real long-term potential. However, it's important to distinguish between what's already operational on an industrial scale and what's still in the pilot stage. For businesses, these are different planning horizons, notes Artem Lyashanov in conclusion.
